On Running has presented an ambitious strategy for the next three years with plans to almost double its net sales to 5.6 billion Swiss francs ($6.8 billion) by 2029, fueled by investments across both mature and emerging sports sectors—including a significant venture into soccer.
Swiss sportswear company pursues rapid expansion plans
After recently stepping into the soccer gear space, On Running shared details about its financial targets and strategic moves at an investor event. The company forecasts net sales to increase by a high-teens percentage each year for the next three years, with a particular focus on reaching a low-20% sales rise in 2026. At the same time, On has introduced a 1 billion Swiss franc share buyback program, reinforcing its commitment to aggressive growth even as the market environment toughens.
The company intends to keep its gross profit margin at or above 65% through 2029, based on its latest guidance. On also aspires for its adjusted EBITDA margin to surpass 22% by 2029, highlighting not just revenue expansion but also enhanced operating profit goals.
Growth driven by diversification and high-profile alliances
While On’s mainstay remains in running footwear and sneakers, it is now putting a greater emphasis on emerging categories like soccer and golf to spearhead its next phase of growth. The brand has spotlighted partnerships with influential personalities, including actor Zendaya and Olympic gold medalist Hellen Obiri, and has made headlines for signing soccer sensation Kylian Mbappé—previously with Nike—to front its innovation drive in soccer gear. Chief Design Officer Thilo Brunner mentioned that On’s distinctive design style is gaining momentum online, and speculation is already building around the upcoming soccer boot releases.
Top athletes and collaborators such as Mbappé, Thierry Henry, and Sydney Schertenleib are directly involved in shaping new products. Chief Marketing Officer Alex Griffin stated that entering soccer, the world’s most-followed sport, is set to bring added attention to On’s other lifestyle offerings as well.
Analyst caution tempers company forecasts
Despite On’s upbeat guidance, industry analysts remain wary about the attainability of these targets. Randal Konik of Jefferies and his team underscored how On’s growth rate slid from 36% down to 13% across the last six quarters and raised concerns over the feasibility of achieving a forecasted 17% constant currency growth in an upcoming period. For 2026 to 2027, Jefferies predicts only 3% growth and a 14.8% EBITDA margin for 2027, falling short of On’s public target for 2029.
Konik commented, “Long-dated targets set against a decelerating base raise the hurdle rather than lower it, and guidance credibility, not vision, is what gets tested today,” while noting the difficulty of accelerating sales in the challenging, promotion-heavy US market.
Meanwhile, Tom Nikic at Needham described a slightly more favorable but still restrained view, foreseeing a compound annual growth rate in the low-teens through the next three years. While Nikic acknowledged industry headwinds, he credited On for strategies to safeguard brand value, such as carefully managing wholesale inventory and sidestepping aggressive price cuts, a sharp contrast to competitors in athletic retail.
Innovation prioritized in On’s brand strategy
Company leaders at On’s latest investor day emphasized the importance of science-based innovative products and collaborative partnerships as foundational strengths. Brunner detailed the creative approach distinguishing the brand’s upcoming soccer launches, and Griffin pointed to the potential for the soccer initiative to support wider success in other lifestyle segments.
Even in the face of skeptical analyst forecasts and industry obstacles, On’s leadership stands by its bold, multiyear growth strategy, counting on new category entries, star-driven collaborations, and its hallmark design focus to propel company expansion in the years ahead.