With the US-imposed midnight deadline rapidly approaching, Canada and the United States engaged in arduous trade talks late into Friday night. Officials, stakeholders, and negotiators closely examined the possible repercussions of new tariffs and required concessions.
After eight hours of negotiations in Washington with US trade officials, Canadian Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc reported progress but acknowledged there was still significant negotiation ahead. “Our job is not finished,” LeBlanc emphasized on Friday evening, committing to work right up to the deadline.
Critical Juncture Approaches as Negotiators Race Against Time
Both nations’ trade teams navigated heightened pressure in the final hours before the Friday night deadline. Should talks falter, fresh US tariffs targeting Canadian goods could come into effect. Earlier that day, President Donald Trump declined to confirm whether a deal had been reached, only sharing that negotiations were “moving along” and noting the United States’ parallel discussions with Mexico on a distinct trade pact. “We should be able to have a deal with Canada… I only make good deals,” Trump asserted.
While no official summary has been shared, media reports indicate notable shifts under consideration: the US may drop tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum from 50% to 25%, and reduce automobile tariffs from 25% to 15%. Canada, meanwhile, is exploring reopening sales of US alcohol—a measure it had restricted in retaliation for US tariffs—expanding market access for US dairy companies, and lifting its own counter-tariffs on American products.
Minister LeBlanc’s extended session with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer marked one of the lengthiest phases in this round of bargaining, highlighting the critical push to finalize terms and fend off a wave of impending tariffs.
Diverse Political Responses to Proposed Trade Moves
News of a possible deal has ignited debate within Canada’s political scene and economic sectors. Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader, has argued that any pact preserving “one-sided” tariffs would be “a bad deal,” voicing concerns about the risk of eroding Canadian industry: “I am concerned with the de-industrialisation of our economy if our key industries pay one-sided tariffs.”
To ensure backing for the agreement at the provincial level, Prime Minister Mark Carney faces the challenge of garnering support. Manitoba’s Premier, Wab Kinew, has requested that Ottawa resist pressure to accept rushed concessions. Carney’s ability to push through the resumption of US alcohol sales in Canadian liquor stores—reportedly a point connected to lowered US steel and auto tariffs—depends on cooperation from Kinew and fellow premiers.
Quebec’s Premier, Christine Fréchette, remains careful, scrutinizing the deal’s impact on Quebec’s large dairy industry before committing to renewed US alcohol sales. Ontario Premier Doug Ford has yet to take a public position, but leaders from Nova Scotia and Yukon have signaled their willingness to proceed with the alcohol import restoration.
Concerns about the effects of possible permanent tariffs are echoing in local communities as well. Matthew Shoemaker, mayor of an Ontario municipality with Canada’s second-largest steel company, told CBC that a 25% steel tariff “wouldn’t be something to celebrate” for workers and residents in the region.
Economic Stakes and Canadian Sentiment
The consequences of unsuccessful talks are significant. Calgary economist Trevor Tombe’s analysis finds that potential US tariffs threaten up to 90,000 Canadian jobs. A range of sectors, from hockey gear and wine to cement, could all be affected by measures on the table from the Trump administration.
Recent polling from Leger suggests most Canadians are not eager to compromise; 56% of respondents said the government should take a firm stance in negotiations with the US. Political tensions were further heightened after leaked remarks by US Vice-President JD Vance, claiming Prime Minister Carney had attempted to “out-tough Donald Trump” but ended up giving ground in several areas, as he put it: “like, they climb down on a lot of issues.”
The final outcome as the clock nears midnight will have enduring effects on Canada and the United States trade relations. Political figures, companies, and workers wait anxiously to learn what terms will ultimately be agreed upon.