In late June, as summer thunderstorms moved across southern England, nearly 900 flights faced delays and cancellations at London’s busiest airports. Aviation experts caution that such weather-driven disruptions may become more frequent as climate change results in increasingly unpredictable conditions.
Heathrow and Gatwick, both dealing with heavily congested airspace, were deeply impacted during one of the UK’s peak holiday weekends. Hundreds of aircraft were grounded, with some facing departure delays up to 11 hours. Multiple flights—departures and arrivals alike—were cancelled, and the chaos ripple through other European airports, leaving passengers across the continent waiting in long lines and uncertainty on their routes to London.
Strain on Air Traffic Control
In Hampshire, National Air Traffic Services (NATS) teams work continuously to track storm patterns, especially as summer’s convective systems—caused by rising humid air—challenge normal traffic management. During the June event, controllers were forced to reroute planes to avoid lightning cells, shrinking usable airspace. This left some flights circling or diverting to other airports. When diversions happen, airports can easily be overwhelmed by a surge in unscheduled flights, lacking stands, refueling options, and passenger facilities, sometimes to the extent that only emergency landings are permitted.
Airline risk consultant and ex-pilot Tim Atkinson highlighted the risks tied to the dense airspace over the UK and Europe, pointing out that the region is prone to situations where several London airports are affected by storms simultaneously. “There’s very little predictability,” he said, “and it would be possible to lose all of the London airports from real-time operation quite swiftly and with little notice.” While aviation systems are designed to handle the loss of a single airport, multiple simultaneous outages could create everything from major delays to, at worst, aircraft running dangerously low on fuel. Commercial jets are required to have enough fuel for a planned diversion plus an extra 30 minutes’ flight, but unexpected late diversions can strain fuel margins and increase operational costs.
Andrew Charlton from Aviation Advocacy offers a somewhat reassuring perspective, stating that the industry generally copes well with such emergencies, but acknowledges preparedness for “worst case” events is still crucial: “Of all the things that wake me up at 3am… this is not the top of that list.”
Growing Risks: Storms, Turbulence, Flooding
Weather impacts on aviation aren’t just limited to visible storm clouds. The increase in clear-air turbulence—which pilots cannot detect with the naked eye—has already caused serious incidents due to rising global temperatures. On March 1, 2023, severe turbulence forced a Lufthansa flight from Austin to Frankfurt to make an emergency landing, sending seven passengers to hospital. Prof Paul Williams from the University of Reading notes that “incidents over the North Atlantic have increased by 55% since 1979,” forecasting that such turbulence could double again on busy international routes. Researchers are developing improved forecasting techniques and onboard laser detectors to help manage this escalating risk.
Climate-driven heavy rainfall also creates problems. In April 2024, flooding disrupted Dubai International Airport for two days, resulting in over 1,200 cancelled flights. Gatwick Airport in the UK experienced severe flooding back in 2013 and responded by investing tens of millions of pounds to strengthen its defences—illustrating a wider industry move to prepare for more frequent extreme rainfall events.
The frequency of thunderstorms in the UK and Europe remains uncertain, but as stated by the UK Met Office: “While we may not see more thunderstorms overall, the ones we do experience could be more impactful,” since a warming atmosphere is capable of holding more moisture. Airline crews make safety a top priority—relying on onboard radar and live forecasts—opting to navigate around dangerous weather even if this means delays or higher fuel consumption. Ultimately, these additional costs to airlines may be passed on to passengers.
Airports Face Risks from Rising Sea Levels
Longer-term dangers include rising sea levels. In 2012, Hurricane Sandy inundated LaGuardia Airport’s runways in New York, shutting down operations for days. Researchers indicate that what used to be “a 1-in-500-year flood” for the region now takes place about every 25 years, with projections suggesting it could happen every five years around mid-century. According to a study from Newcastle University, 269 airports are already at risk of flooding globally, and the number is expected to increase—major hubs like Amsterdam Schiphol and London City Airport among them.
Investments needed for significant flood protections—such as raising runways or even relocating airports—could reach up to $57bn (£42bn). These costs will likely fall on taxpayers and travelers, as the aviation industry works toward its goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 while accommodating rising passenger numbers.
Industry consultant Andrew Charlton emphasizes that the sector’s best response is to enhance mitigation efforts—improving delayed passenger handling and strengthening infrastructure—while accepting that “disagreeable moments” may become a more normalized part of air travel as the climate continues to change.